Written by Hundreds of people have been forced to flee their homes in northern Ethiopia as intense fighting erupts between regional forces and the federal military, raising fears that the brutal two-year civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives is on the verge of reigniting. The clashes, which began in the early hours of the morning, have shattered a fragile peace agreement that was supposed to end Africa’s deadliest conflict.
The renewed violence is concentrated in the Amhara region, specifically around the town of Merawi, where local militias known as Fano have been engaged in heavy gun battles with the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). Witnesses report that artillery shelling and small-arms fire have been continuous, forcing residents to abandon their homes with little more than the clothes on their backs. “We left everything behind,” one displaced farmer told local media. “We heard the bombs and we ran. We don’t know where we will sleep tonight.”
This outbreak of violence is a stark reminder that the peace deal signed in Pretoria in November 2022, which formally ended the war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), was always fragile. While that agreement successfully silenced the heavy guns in Tigray, it failed to address underlying grievances in other regions, particularly Amhara. The current escalation stems from a power struggle between the federal government and Amhara nationalist forces who feel betrayed by the terms of the peace deal, specifically regarding the status of disputed territories.
The Fragile Peace Unravels: Why the Fighting Has Returned
The current conflict is not a direct continuation of the Tigray war, but rather a dangerous offshoot. The Fano militia, which previously fought alongside the federal army against the TPLF, has now turned its weapons on the government. The trigger for this shift was the federal government’s decision to integrate regional special forces into the national army or police. In Amhara, this was seen as a disarmament campaign designed to weaken the region’s ability to defend itself against what they perceive as Tigrayan expansionism.
The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, insists that the integration is necessary for national unity and to prevent the balkanization of the country. However, the Amhara elite and the Fano fighters view it as an act of aggression. The result is a volatile standoff that has now boiled over into open warfare. The fighting is not just a military issue; it is a political failure that has left the country teetering on the brink of another humanitarian catastrophe.
Displacement and Desperation: The Humanitarian Toll on Civilians
The immediate consequence of the fighting is a rapidly unfolding humanitarian crisis. Hundreds, and likely thousands, are on the move, seeking safety in churches, schools, and the homes of relatives in less volatile areas. Aid agencies are warning that they are cut off from the affected zones due to the insecurity, making it impossible to deliver food, water, and medical supplies.
The situation is reminiscent of the darkest days of the Tigray conflict, where aid was weaponized and civilians starved. There are already reports of food shortages and a lack of access to basic healthcare. The displaced population is particularly vulnerable, with women and children bearing the brunt of the suffering. The international community, which has largely turned its attention to other global crises, is being urged to intervene diplomatically before the situation spirals completely out of control.
The Risk of a Full-Scale Civil War Return
The question on everyone’s mind is whether this is a localized skirmish or the beginning of a full-scale civil war return. Analysts are deeply concerned that the current trajectory points toward the latter. The federal government has a history of using overwhelming force to quell dissent, while the Fano militia is known for its guerrilla tactics and deep-rooted support within the local population. This combination is a recipe for a protracted and bloody insurgency.
Furthermore, the conflict risks drawing in other regional actors. The TPLF, which has remained neutral so far, could be dragged into the fray if the federal government redeploys troops away from Tigray to fight in Amhara. This could unravel the Pretoria agreement entirely, plunging the entire northern region back into a multi-front war. The Horn of Africa is already a volatile region, and a destabilized Ethiopia would have catastrophic consequences for neighboring countries like Sudan and Somalia.
A Call for De-escalation and Dialogue
The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, has called for an immediate ceasefire and a return to dialogue. However, there is little sign that either side is willing to back down. The federal government has declared a state of emergency in the region, while Fano leaders have vowed to fight until their demands are met.
The path to peace is narrow but not impossible. It requires a genuine political settlement that addresses the root causes of the conflict—namely, the distribution of power, the status of disputed territories, and the need for inclusive governance. Without a political solution, the military option will only lead to more death and destruction. The people of northern Ethiopia have already suffered immensely; they deserve a future free from the sound of gunfire and the fear of displacement. The world is watching, and the time to act is now, before the embers of the old war ignite a new inferno that consumes the entire nation.
